This is an interesting week for investors and traders of precious metals melting at the back of a rising dollar. Shares on the other hand, bucked the trend and moved higher as they bought in the earning season. Once the earnings release, we begin to see the market get sold on the retail numbers and good will in the right numbers to buy if the smart money selling their shares, while liquidity in the market.

Speaking of pullbacks, I talked about silver and gold, forming a top. A few months ago in November I saw the first warning of distribution to sell the precious metals sector. There was a large drop in price with heavy volume that is a warning sign that the Big Money starts to roll out of the busy trade (precious metals). The thing is that she tops with a long time to take shape and become very choppy.

Since the November highlights both silver and gold have traded broadly sideways. They never really went much higher and that’s because the big money is to spread their shares to smaller investors slowly overtime (retail buyers and average Joe’s). They try not to deter investors, so they sell their positions in chunks.What most people do now is that these vendors to form higher highs, because once a new high is for people buying again become more bullish on the breakout. It is these waves that the big money sells bullishness that is why you see heavy volume after a new high has formed.
Daily Silver Chart

The silver chart clearly shows the bull market (markup phase) and the distribution phase is taking place now …. If all goes according to then choppy / low prices supposed to take place over the next 1-4 months.
Gold daily chart

Gold is doing the same thing as silver, and I do not think the sale is not over.
Dollar daily chart

The past 12 months it seems as though everything is a dollar-based games. Which means that if you draw one minute chart of the dollar and 1 minute chart of the SP500 or Gold, you would now that if the dollar moves down stocks and commodities and vice-versa. That said, the SP500 has started to go up with the dollar in recent months, so there is a shift underway, but it’s a slow change and is not much of a concern for gold now.

If the dollar starts a leg higher will provide a good timing and market sentiment is at an extreme and earning season is here.This usually means lower prices for stocks and commodities.
Mid-Week Silver, Gold and Dollar Trading Conclusion:

In short, over the next 1-4 weeks, I am optimistic about the dollar and bearish or neutral on stocks and commodities. The reason I’m neutral because I do not like short things in a bull market phase when they can continue to go up much longer than we thought at times. Rather keep my strong positions and wait for a correction to buy / add when I feel the momentum has stopped selling later this year.